Is Russia Really America’s Greatest Enemy?
Last night turned on the History Channel, as a rule, they are an excellent show to watch, had a show called “America’s Greatest Threat: Vladimir Putin”. I will say, as a rule, I love history channel, this show, however, was so slanted to the far left, the conspiracy that the left is pushing that I was far more irate watching it then finding it informative. The claim that Putin and Russia were the most significant threat to our existence seemed to be somewhat extreme, so I started to dig.
The whole show went into a claim that our number one enemy in the world is Russia, there is no one greater. With this, I must ask, “Is this true?” With all the bad actors is Russia the most significant threat to America and the world? Figured first to look at Russia, then other bad actors and rate whom I thought was the worst, second worst, what I found was somewhat surprising, sure not the narrative we are being told.
Economy of Russia
If we look at first, the economy, the driving engine that establishes the capability to arm one’s self, to maintain what they have in arms, then look at what they invest of the GDP into arms you first get an idea of what a nation is capable of. This was the first thing I looked at and decided to compare Russia to other countries.
The latest dates I could get hold of was 2016, it is too soon to look at 2017, but remember our growth has been great in the last year so that the US would be even higher now. Here is how the nations compare.
In the first column, that is why it is larger than the last two, shows an estimate for 2017 by International Monetary Fund. The second column is Per the World Bank (2016). Per the United Nations in the third column, this shows their figures for 2016. We can see from the statistics that while the US and China are ranked number one and number 2, Russia is down at either number 12 or 13, they have an economy that is the size of Australia, This puts them at 8.6% of the GDP that Europe has, 7.6% compared to the US, and 12% of what China’s is, this more puts them as a small economy, not close to a superpower.
The difference is what Russia spends on defense. The US spends 3.3%, China 1.7%, and Russia 5.3%, European nations spend between .8 to 2%, but when you have an economy 1/10 the size of the countries around you, spending even 5 times what they do, if Russia rose their spending to prior to the collapse of the USSR, you still would not be close. What we see here is without causing major breakdown of the rest of the economy, which is what about the downfall of the USSR, they were trying to match the US and NATO in spending between 15 and 25% of their GDP, when the oil prices crashed the revenue stopped the USSR was unable to continue spending as they had.
We can see today even with the more significant percentage the USSR has; they just can’t compete. I am not saying they have a lousy military, with the knowledge left over from the Cold War, they still an incredible ability to produce and create fantastic weapon systems, but like their stealth fighter, while they have the ability they don’t have the funds to make more than the dozen they were able to purchase.
So we can see while Russia does have a stronger military than any single NATO member with the exception of the US, they also know that if NATO could figure out a way to combine their arms without nations holding back much of their forces for fear if they don’t succeed in a more substantial military battle they will have some for national defense, and I believe very much this would happen, NATO at best would be dealing with a delaying action until the US could transport their vast military to the field.
The problem, in the end, comes down to the US has a larger navy then the Russians, the Chinese and Indian military has combined. Their air force fighter capability, if they can field all their fighters, it would be the same. Sadly as of now, this is not the case, much of our fighters are unable to fly, which is rapidly being corrected with the new budget (this is part of the reason why you see little change in growth. The military has to make up for a chronic shortage of spare parts, a deficit that is so bad right now less than 1/4 of our navy fighters can fly, ships have put off fefitting and repares, our Air force can only field about 1/2 of their fighters, like the navy has been forced to visit museums to find replacement parts, under the last 9 years with the fighting over the budget and the refusal by the left to adequately fund the military we have seen our military drop to dangerious levels in the way of maintance. I dig deeper into this with The Destruction Of The Great American Military, if you wish to see more, please click on the link.
Russia Intelligence work
Listening to outgoing Obama leaders in the spy agency you would think that war with Russia is imminent, and I must say had Clinton had won the election we could very well be involved in one now, the Democrats are that desperate to try to take eyes off their inept handling of the economy, our military and our election, but I don’t think Russia had done anything they hadn’t done for years.
Both the US and Russia have been doing this for years. After the USSR fell, the US was very much involved during the Clinton years making sure that the communist would not return to power. In the years after the US was not only involved in the elections in Russia, they even have tried to sway elections of our allies. Israel is the perfect example; under Obama after he had won his second election (I don’t think any of us should ever forget his promise to the Russians that after the election he would have more flexibility in dealing with them),
Turns out with Israel Obama after he had won his second election sent over his head of his reelection campaign to Israel to set up an anti-Benjamin Netanyahu campaign, worked with the Europeans who had pumped in hundreds of thousands, along with millions from the Europeans to unseat a leader of one of our greatest allies in the world.
To claim that American had dome to us what we weren’t doing is ludicrous, but in a typical liberal fashion, they ignore the fact, like most bullies do, that if you do something to someone else, you have no right to bitch if it is done to you.
What you have here is not a threat from Russia, never was one any greater or lesser then it was in the first or second Obama elections, but listening to the mainstream press, you would swear this was the first time and done in such a way that it should constitute an act of war. The facts are when pressed no one can show one vote that was changed due to Russian meddling, but what they did do was succeed with the aid of either a willing or unwilling press, and I would not be surprised if they were in collusion with this, to break the trust of the people in the election process.
The problem has never been that Russia is a threat, the left needed a scapegoat to blame their colossal lies in the election. The liberal press knows if they stop this charade the people will start to demand how they could until even election day have so severely gotten the election wrong, also calls into question if there was collusion between them and the polling with the left to try to force Americans that would have voted for Trump not to propose. Instead, all they did with their dishonesty is make more people that very well not have voted, when they were exposed by Trump for what they are voted anyway to reject their control.
So is Russia a threat? Of course, they are, but are they the number one threat? No, this is just a lie that is continuing from the left. Putin is many things; he is a manipulator, schemer is brilliant and shrewd, but will not step into a position where his power could slip from him. Putin knows due to acts if he ever lost that power his life would soon be forfeit as well, he is not one that would put himself in a situation that he could not come out with equal or more power from.
Putin simply is about three things; it is not hard to see. First, he is about self-preservation. Second, he has tasted the power he will do anything, even leave bodies in his wake to hold onto this power. Third, he dreams of Russia rising back to the glory of the Cold War Years, but he is also pragmatic, he knows what caused the empire’s collapse, will not allow the nation to do so again.
The Real Number One Danger
The most prominent danger to the US and the world is not Russia, not even close. I would say the order is:
North Korea is easy to explain, they are now a significant threat due to Bush Sr. Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama did nothing but appease the dictators there putting off dealing with them to the next generation, sadly each time they passed on this threat they grew from maybe number 20 and climbed up by 5 points each time. Trump today is dealing with North Korea in a way that should have been done all along, if they see a strong stance, they know they have a zero chance of a conflict with the US, that is why they turned to nukes, they are there as blackmail, letting us know that while we may win a war, the cost will be far too high. Add to this the probability that they have one or two satellites armed with nukes, and it raises the stakes even that much higher.
North Korea is the most unpredictable of the nations that the US faces a threat from, but I still think that in spite of all their bluster there still is a sense of self-preservation there. While we are dealing with from our perspective is an irrational actor, I see more rationality then is credit, Clausewitz who in the late 1800’s wrote of tragedy of war said it is best to keep your enemies thinking that you were irrational, that way when you make rational well thought out advances against them they are totally unexpected. Sun Tzu said,
- Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.
- Engage people with what they expect; it is what they can discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate.
- Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate.
This is what I think we are facing; North Korea is weak, they know they are, they have a large military but extremely dated, in today’s hyper war these forces would be expended in very short order. Better to throw your enemy off, keep them guessing so they don’t act, in the meantime while presenting one face to them that they think they know, work behind the facade to create a situation you can control, Of course, there is a danger to this, the enemy may act before you are prepared.
In many ways I think Iran is much more of a threat then North Korea, that is due to unlike the North Koreans who have a strong political identity, there is no religious zealotry involved there. The Iranians, on the other hand, are very religious, are much involved with the belief in 12 Imam. While the Sunni’s do believe in him, you don’t see the zealotry you see with the Shiites. Most Muslims do believe in this character, but it is the Sunni’s that think they have to be involved actively to bring him to his rightful place.
Once more we deal with another Nation that we have seen since Carter a willingness to appease them then stand up to them in force, the only exception to this was Reagon, and Iran backed down quickly. The worst offender of this policy though was Obama, in his desperation to have a signature treaty for his administration to be remembered by, he rushed forward, the players such as Kerry allowed themselves to be manipulated, the Iranians knew how much this meant to the administration, in so doing we found out later that much of the details were hidden from the American public, Obama knew if they were disclosed the US would never go for it.
At the present time while I don’t see Trump as one to back down, I think he is so preoccupied with North Korea, and the fact that the US forces are so depleted due to 8 years of neglect, that Trump knows there is no way we can afford to have three open fronts of war, in Afghanistan, in Syria and Iraq and then have a front open in North Korea and Iran, and not only does Trump realize this, so do others.
I think f the issue with North Korea can be resolved then Trump will cast his eyes on Iran, but in the meantime, we know that Iran has Israel’s full attention.
China is actually very simple to understand, but far, far more difficult to detect exactly what they are doing, they are about layers upon layers upon layers, you peel away one you expose ten more, peal way those ten there are ten under each one leaving hundreds, everything is in place to confuse and redirect, but there is one truth that is always there, China sees themselves as the next superpower, it could be argued they are already there.
If you look at each conflict, from North Korea to Iran, you will see that China has a hand in all of them. The reason is simple, everything is done in a way to weaken the hold the US has in the world, China knows to grow in power they not only have to build themselves up economically in military power, but they need a circle of allies around them that they can count on if a need arises, and whom they can manipulate or bribe to do what is best for their self-interest.
To understand China, you have to realize that while America is impatient, impetuous, China is happy to move along at a much slower pace, setting up a support system as they move forward and take time doing it, so they don’t have to return to do so. While we think in a 10 or 20 year period, China plans for 50 or a 100, much of this has to do with the US compared to much of the world is very young, we are less than 300 years as a nation, China is in the thousands, they have the benefit of a long history. China would instead push softly with a soft hand then strike with a hard one, but they keep that in reserve if a soft hand does not work.
I, unlike the left, would put Russia as number four, the reason is as I showed above, they would by no means win a war with the US, but they could make it very, very costly. But they like China also have a hand in each conflict. Russia is, for now, content to sit in the number two spot, they would rather do so behind China then the US if that means manipulating crises around the world then so be it.
What my greatest fear is Russia and China working together, even that I think the US could defeat, but the losses would be terrible, but I was them I would be doing what they are doing now. I would weaken the enemy by having their forces being spread over more and more conflicts, then set off both North Korea and Iran into a full conflict, have North Korea attack, Iran as well, seed the access point to oil terminals with mines, as the military got stretched out thinner and thinner then attack on both fronts, have China get involved by aiding North Korea with Troops and then go after Tiawan and threaten Japan and Australia, the US would quickly be forced to pioritize, what is siezed could quickly be fortified, maybe follow what they had done in the South China sea and build artifical Islands to push out the paramitor away from the beach.
Russia could at the same time go to war to take back in the Baltic States and none NATO member states, then see if NATO and the US would be willing to split up forces to aid in this. Further, I would not be surprised if some of the states, rather then face economic stranglehold, due to the lack of strategic stockpiles of energy and almost complete dependence would refuse to fight, NATO could quickly find itself in danger of dissolving. But even in this case, I would still fear what China could throw at us far more then what Russia could.
So is Russia the number one enemy? Not even close. I would even take this a step further and say that our number one enemy is not the nations listed, it is the deep state actors that are threatening along with the left to tear this nation apart, they with the left are a far greater threat to this nation than any outside actors.