Are We On The Cusp Of A War With Iran?
It seems like it was not long ago that the pundits were yelling from their platform that Trump was trying to get us into a war with the North Koreans. We heard howls of indignation that he was going to end up getting Hawaii destroyed by nukes, Guam as well, that we could be looking at LA and San Francisco going up in a mushroom cloud; instead we saw not long after this both leaders sitting and talking, North Korea knew Trump was not playing around, we now are witnessing the same thing with Iran. Welcome to Trump’s idea of negotiating, a baseball bat and a phone; Fight – we beat you, talk – we meet you.
Trump’s idea of negotiating – A baseball bat and a phone. Fight, we beat you; talk, we meet you.
We are now seeing this displayed to us with Iran. Could Iran turn this into a shooting war? They could, if they wanted to see their nation changed in a way that they can’t comprehend, just look back at Iraq during the first Iraq war, this is what Iran would be facing, but it sure would not be in their interest. So Trump continues to deal with Iran as he has with other tyrants, if you wish to fight, we will come looking for you, if you wish to talk, we can sit down and work something out.
Iran has been pushing to extend the influence of their revolution since the overthrow of the Shaw. At first, they were in disarray, had to sit back and build up from within before they could focus on what was outside their borders, but they have moved on beyond this, did so long ago.
In their quest to further their influence, Iran has for years used proxies to attack anyone they are displeased with, then sit back and proclaim their innocence saying they have never attacked anyone in the last 100 years. But let me ask a question, “In a court of law, if you attack someone directly, or pay someone to attack that person, are you any less guilty with the second then with the first?”
This seems to be a switch in the Trump era, in the past, we would look at these proxy wars, attack the ones carrying out the attacks, but ignore the ones behind the group that was financing and training these radicals. We saw this when Hezbollah attacked US soldiers in Beirut under Reagan, while it was known that Iran was behind this, we did not strike at Iran, instead, we struck Hezbollah positions and ignored Iran’s hand in this.
After the second war with Iraq, we captured an Iranian General aiding rebels that were killing American troops, the IED’s in many cases that were used against our soldiers were manufactured in, instead of striking Iranian targets for the killing of our boys, we did nothing.
There is more, we have Iran sponsoring just about every terrorist group there is in the Middle East, with the exception of ISIS, yet nothing is done, these groups attack us, we go after them and leave the sponsorer alone. It is time we have a change of police, wish Israel would do this also. Change it to this – If you support, train and arm terrorist groups that attack Americans or American interests, we will not only attack the terrorist, we will also attack in equal veracity the nation that is supporting and arming these terrorists.
It is time we have a change of police, wish Israel would do this also. Change it to this – If you support, train and arm terrorist groups that attack Americans or American interests, we will not only attack the terrorist, we will also attack in equal veracity the nation that is supporting and arming these terrorists.
I would love to see if Hezbollah fires off a rocket at Israel, Israel responds with two rockets, one at Iran, one at Hezbollah. In Saudi Arabia, if you have the rebels in Yemen fire off a rocket at them, they attack both the terrorist and Iranian targets, if you support and arm a group, in many cases hand over hardware you know is going to be used on another, then finance and train this group, when they attack, you should be held equally liable.
But what would happen if Iran decided to take on the US in a war?
This would be short-lived, but an invasion would and should be out of the question, Iran is much, much larger than Iraq, and we saw the problems we had with them.
Militarily Iran has mostly Generation 3++ and early 4th generation fighters, with a couple 4+ fighters, against American forces that have 4++ fighters and 5th generation fighters coming online, Iran would lose air superiority the day they attacked. In the Air war, Iran would not stand a chance; even if they united with Syria and the Iraqi military, they would not last the day with control of the sky.
Armor, Iran is equally outdated here. America has continued to upgrade the Abrams tank, arguably one of the better tanks in the world. It is a front line tank with modernized electronics to keep it up to date against modern; we currently have 6,000 M1 Abrams.
Iran, on the other hand, has 150 Chieftains, or their manufactured version of these tanks, these are an older generation British tank. They also have 150 Zulfiqar MBT 1, 2. 3, these are OK tanks, but not in numbers to affect much. 200 M60 Patton’s, a good tank, one the US fielded before the M1. About 580 T-72’s, from the same era, as our M60 tanks were. They are working on a tank called Karrar. I would not put this as good as the T-90 but is superior to the T-72. Their tank force is weak, they would not be able to hold their own against Israel, let alone a vastly superior numerically American force.
APC’s there is not even a contest in this. Iran has 1700 assorted older APC’s, the US has a much more modern and capable force of over 18,000, and more are sitting in storage if needed.
The navies are not even comparable, Iran has no Air craft carriers, a few larger ships with a grey water navy, the US has a blue water navy with 20 Aircraft carriers, landing ships, nuclear submarines, and a host of other ships. Iran would have to pull their navy to ports or lose them in the opening hours of a war.
Iran has a huge missile force, they also have a good air defense system, but I believe that most of this would be neutralized in the opening days of a conflict, the US would use stealth assets to get close enough to take out any formable air defense units that could pose a threat to US fighters, then take their time destroying the rest.
Iran has short and intermediate ranged missiles that could hurt us, but most of these would quickly find the launch sites destroyed, then F35’s would be used to fly over, loiter and attack targets of opportunity, using their stealth to avoid being attacked.
I do not worry about a war with Iran; what I would worry about is what would follow. Keeping the peace would be hard, and hopefully, we have learned our lesson from Iraq. Like it or not, we can free these people from tyranny, but they will hate you, for we are not Muslims, thus soon the gratitude would quickly switch to resentment and then hatred for most of the people. We would be better served to unseat the current regime, then set up support for the opposition parties, but stay out of the country or nation-building business.