Timothy Benton | Jun 11, 2019 | 0
The Stock Market Is Crashing The Left Yells Gleefully
We have watched over the last week a correction in the stock market, it started off at 26,616.71 on January 26, today it is sitting at 24, 190.9o, much of this is not due to the demand crashing, instead correcting itself due to interest rates going up, the job market wages seeing the first rise in years, this is due to the unemployment rates are starting to fall to really good numbers, thus the demands for workers are higher, businessses are having to offer more money to draw in the same workers that would have cost less a year ago when the unemployment figures were up.
We all heard the press, the ones that time after time told us that the stock market rise, they were due to Obama’s actions, but when the correction came, the largest in history suddenly they were falling over themselves to blame this on Trump.
Of course what was never stated was the correction or single day fall, while the numbers were huge was nothing compared to others in the past. We saw a -4.6% drop on Feb 5th, then a -4.15% three days later on the 8th, but how does this compare to other corrections? The number and not the percentage was focused on due to the amount seemed more significant then what it was,
For instance, President Reagan in 1987 saw a 22% drop on Black Monday, yet the economy corrected itself and continued to grow from this, this was the most substantial correction in history. Bill Clinton while in office saw a correction of -5.66% on 4/14/2000, -7.18 on 10/27/1997, −6.37 on 08/31/1998, this was leading up to ending in the Hight Tech bubble burst. So while the numbers may seem more significant, you have to remember, during Clinton’s most substantial drop the Dow was at 7,161.14 when the market closed, we are looking at today the market is at 24,190.90, that is a huge difference, taking a 1,000 point drop is painful, but is nothing like we saw when it took a 22% drop, the numbers were much smaller, so even though the numbers were lower the overall effect on the market was greater.
So if you looked at the numbers when Trump took office, the Dow was at 16,466, today it is at over 24,000 that is a 68% rise, something that is extremely good, yet all you seem to hear from with the press is the bad news, when the Dow did a 336 point rise, they are now silent about this.
Are there going to be more hiccups? Of course there is, I expect one more correction, the rising of interest rates will do this to the market, the money to borrow for growth is not as cheap as it was just a couple of days ago, yet it will correct itself but will take a couple of weeks to get back to 25,000, then will start its slow rise again.
Historically, recent market crashes are minimal
Context is everything. The Dow plummeted 90% in the Great Depression versus that 54% in the Great Recession. In the 1930s, the “gold standard” meant the government could not stimulate the economy by increasing the amount of money in circulation without increasing the gold reserves. Given that it took the Dow six years to recover the last time, this correction pales in comparison.
“Historically, the market has trended upward,” according to Prestbo. “Occasionally, such as during the 1950s and 1990s, the gains are strong and persistent. More often the market meanders, taking one step down for every two it moves up.” But buckle up for a bumpy ride, if you are a new investor in 2018. “Pullbacks of less than 5% were so common,” he said, “I gave up counting them.”
As the economy is trying to adjust to the growth we are now seeing, it being = accelerated with the new tax laws motivating companies that have been holding their cash overseas to bring it back here, you are going to see more rises in the Fed interest rates, this is a great thing long-term CD’s and shows a growing economy, the lower rates are put in place to combat inflation, something that is being corrected now.
Where are we headed?
I see one more correction, we will then see the market rebound, it has to correct itself due to outside influences, also it can’t maintain the type of growth it was going through and not correct itself, we saw this during the end of the Clinton era, many seem not to realize when Bush took office the market was in the midst of a freefall, then 9/11, the housing crises and our economy took hit after hit.
I expect within three months we will be back to where we were, could be pushing close to 30,000 by the end of this year, maybe higher if the economy continues to grow the way it is.
The worst part of the stock market is not the money lost, although that is terrible, it is the reaction from the left. They could care less that people lost billions, the fact that they have something they can blame on Trump after the economy has been doing so well is all they care about. Once more the press has shown us that their concern is not the American people, or for that matter presenting the truth, it is the narrative they are interested in, no matter how much Fake News they have to put out.