Timothy Benton | Jun 11, 2019 | 0
Trump Pulls Out of Iran Nuclear Treaty
Yesterday in a move that should be of little surprise, Trump has shown once more that he will do as he says, fulfilled a campaign promise to pull out of the terrible Iran deal, said he wants one that has actual teeth. We look at the promises so far kept, then why we pulled out of the treaty, and the direction forward.
Campaign Promise Fulfilled
We have seen time after time now promises fulfilled that were made while Trump was campaigning. We have the military that is now being rebuilt with an increase of military spending, thus fixing a military that was badly neglected over the last 8 years, a lack of spare parts, continued fighting in wars around the world, it was in desperate need of not only having the supplies needed to maintain the force but to upgrade as well.
But this was not the only promise made, we have the Paris Climate Accord that we have pulled out of, North Korea is now going to the negotiating table with no preconditions, something no one has been able to do since the Korean war. Turned back regulations, pushed through a tax decrease, our economy is growing at close to the 3% Trump promised, unemployment down (record lows for African American and Latino unemployment), consumer confidence way up. He pulled of out the Trans-Pacific Partnership, started to address the trade deficit with China and other nations, moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem next week, put in place the ban of migration from radical Islamist nations and nations in turmoil even though he faced challenges by activist judges.
Trump did most of this in his first year, and did this with unprecedented attacks and obstruction by the left, courts with liberal justices that have tried to thwart his every move, the press that has tried to run a narrative with little facts, and what now is turning out to be a witch hunt by a out of control Special Counsels Office that was assigned on false claims that is now carrying on investigations outside its right under constitutional law. One has to wonder, what would have Trump done if he had not been facing all this opposition, or does he thrive better under conflict?
Trump Withdraws from Iran Nuke Deal
Trump saying that Iran could not be trusted, the inspection regime was with too many faults, the fact that evidence has come up of Iran lying about nuclear weapons research signed our withdrawl from the Iranian deal yesterday.
European leaders had come to America to try to get Trump to stay in the deal, Trump said during the campaign that it was a terrible deal created out of desperation, much like the Chamberlin deal with Hitler was, he would have none of it, pulled out.
In what was not a surprise, John Kerry was over in Iran trying to save the deal (possibly violating the Logan Act), he and Obama condemned Trump for pulling out of the treaty, the liberals in Congress voiced the same, but praise also started to come in from Israel, members of the GOP, for they saw the deal as it was, and as such, it is not better to stay in a bad deal then to pull out and redo a deal.
Iran has predictably said they will not renigotiate, Europe at this time has not given any indication they will pull out of the treaty following the US’s led, and Iran has threatened if they do it will reimplement and then escalate its weapons research program. There is speculation that Iran may already have 5 or 6 nuclear weapons, but so far the evidence does not point to that, and if they did they would most likely be low yield Hiroshima type weapons, not that these would not be terrible.
Will War With Iran Be More Likely Now?
I at this time don’t see how a war with Iran will be any more or less likely with the US, what I do see is as the US implements maximum sanctions against Iran we will see their economy, which has been very robust after the treaty was completed, many nations in Europe wanted desperately for the deal to be done so they could do business with Iran. What is terrible is it as usual shows the short-sightedness of the Europeans, they will happily finance this nation, a nation that supports terror, Islamification of Europe, has pushed immigrants to them so as to overwhelm their society, support and arm terrorist, providing training, but that does not matter to Europe, the almighty Euro means more to them.
What I do see is a war with Israel, and to be frank, it is now ongoing in a low-level conflict, but it will not take much to bring this to an all-out war between the two sides. We have seen earlier in the year Iran sent a drone up over Israel that was armed, Israel shot it down, in retribution they attacked and destroyed Iranian anti-air and drone sites, in the process, they lost an F16I, Iran lost numerous soldiers. Iran has threatened to strike back, Israel has been preparing for such an eventuality, but to this point looks like Israel has thwarted anything Iran has tried, the problem is if they do succeed in attack Israel, even if Israel shoots down every attacking rocket or missile, Israel will strike back with even more force then they did last time, this will not sit well with the Iranians and things will ratchet up from there.
I went briefly into what a war with Iran would look like, looked at both of their capabilities, even if they bring in Hezbollah and Syria to fight with them in IRAN AND ISRAEL AT THE CUSP OF WAR. In the end, what needs to be known is Iran has a brown water navy, they could not bring any naval force to bear by Israeli borders unless they wanted to lose every ship. Israel has one of the best Air Forces in the world, there is no comparison between what Israel can field, all Gen 4++ and Generation fighters, against Iran’s Generation 3, 3++ fighters, Israel would own the sky from the opening shots. Israel has a vastly superior armor corps, Iran’s are outdated, would not perform well in a modern battlefield, the only two things Iran leads in is manpower, in today’s world that is not as important as it was in WW2, and their rocket force.
The rocket force is what is causing much of the friction between the two, Iran wants bases in Syria that will enable the majority of their intermediate missile force to be able to strike Israel, Israel has said if they don’t back down they will remove them. Israel, on the other hand, has a very robust missile force themselves and their missiles, most specifically the Jerico II and Jerico III’s. The Jericho II, depending on the size of warhead, could strike Iran but would be at the limit of its range, but the Jerico III would have no such issue, with a range of 5,000 Km, and with talk of a Jericho 3A, they may be able to reach in the 11,00o to 13,000 Km range, if Israel loads these even with conventional warheads, they would be extremely destructive.
While Israel has the technology edge on Iran, Iran has the edge numerically, the problem is the reach, this is why Israel is so keen to have them out of Syria and attacking any attempt they see of Iran to smuggle in missiles, their only reason to have them there is for future use against Israel.